2020-2021 NFL Season Win Total Prop Bets That We Love for Teams We Hate

  • Risking 1 Unit at -110 odds on Dallas Cowboys Season Win Total Over 9.5 games

We honestly really hate predicting that the Dallas Cowboys are going to win over 9.5 games during the upcoming season. However, they swapped Coach Handclap for Coach McCarthy which must be a plus. They franchise tagged Dak Prescott, so he should be playing at his best to, once again, prove he is worth the biggest contract in the history of the NFL (even though he clearly isn’t). They locked up Amari Cooper for a massive 5-year deal, let’s hope he doesn’t sit back and count his money, I can almost hear him now… “A million for me, none for Dak, a million for me, non for Dak…” We understand they lost Byron Jones, but if there is one thing the Cowboys have done well lately, it is draft. We have faith they can adequately fill their gaps to win at least 10 games in the 2020-2021 season. Our model showed that Dallas should have won about 67% of games by the end of last season.  They drastically under-performed, winning only 50% of games.  We expect Dallas to revert towards the mean next season by over-performing expectations created from last season’s failure.

  • Risking 1 Unit at -110 odds on Seattle Seahawks Season Win Total Under 9 games

One-percenter, Russel Wilson, has effectively gobbled up Seattle’s cap space and their ability to maneuver the market and build a balanced team. Wilson was phenomenal last season, we do not expect that to change, however do not be surprised if there happens to be a slight regression. With film on Metcalf, everyone will be taking him more seriously, so he could have a mixed season depending on his development (Sophomore Slump?).  We promise Clowney’s hit on Wentz in the playoffs did not influence this bet at all, but we were happy to see our model called for them to win under 9 games. The Seattle Seahawks should have won about 51% of games by the end of last season.  They significantly over-performed, winning 69% of games.  We expect the Seahawks to revert towards the mean next season by under-performing expectations in the 2020-2021 season.

  • Risking 1 Unit at -110 odds on Green Bay Packers Season Win Total Under 9 games

I think everyone saw through the Green Bay Packers last season. We aren’t sold on the idea that Matt Lafleur is really a 13-3 type of coach, however we do give him props for having that running game running train. Also, Aaron Rodgers is now another year older and another year removed from his Super Bowl that we think may have happened before color television.  The Packers have not done much in free agency and their drafting spot in the first round is 30th. After the first round, they have one pick each in the second, third and fourth rounds. We are not sure what moves Green Bay can really make to improve for the season ahead. In the end, our model showed that the Green Bay Packers should have won about 61% of games by the end of last season.  They severely over-performed, winning 81% of games.  We expect the Packers to revert towards the mean next season by under-performing expectations created by last season’s hollow 13-3 record.

  • Risking 1 Unit at -118 odds on Detroit Lions Season Win Total Over 6.5 games

One of the most mundane and soul-crushing things you can do in life is dig into the statistics of the Detroit Lions; seriously, if you love pain, go for it. We will spare your time, since we already wasted ours. Our model showed that the Detroit Lions should have won about 38% of games by the end of last season (what a bunch of studs).  They drastically under-performed, winning only 19% of games (how the hell is that even possible).  We expect the Lions to revert toward the mean next season by over-performing expectations. I feel like our model might be trolling us.

  • Risking 1 Unit at -110 odds on Los Angeles Chargers Season Win Total Over 7.5 games

When the model spit this bet out, we all looked at each other weird, none of us even knew the Chargers were still a team. So, we did some digging into who is even on the squad. It looks Tyrod Taylor will be under center, unless the draft brings with it some unforeseen craziness. DB Chris Harris was added to the roster, which is a plus and that secondary should be a force. They also acquired Bulaga and Trai Turner for their offensive line. We love the idea of building the trenches and the defense and they have the draft to add some offensive weapons. Damn, we are starting to like the outlook of the Chargers, we may have to even watch one of their games. In conclusion, our model showed that the Los Angeles Chargers should have won about 49% of games.  They drastically under-performed, winning only 31% of games.  We expect the Chargers to revert towards the mean next season by over-performing expectations. Depending on their QB play, we could see a surprise season from them.



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