2.5% on Manchester City @ +375 odds
1.0% on FC Barcelona @ +1100 odds
1.0% on RB Leipzig @ +1500 odds
There they are, our 3 tiered Champions League winners. Our analysis and model has Man City as the best team left in the tournament, so we will take +375 odds on them all day.They have the firepower to put up goals against the best teams. At the same time, if they go up 2-0 they can play back and ride the game out on their stud defense and keeper. As of right now, they are up against Real Madrid in which they won the first leg 2-1. Now, Sergio Ramos, for Real Madrid, is out in the 2nd leg and that should be a huge boost for Man City, especially since they will be getting Aymeric Laporte back for this game. Man City is built for this tourney and has one of the more well-rounded teams that know how to score. We will be watching closely to see how they perform.
FC Barcelona is our mid-tier bet to win the Champions League. They remain a very talented team on paper and should have the ability to make a strong run at this thing. However, Messi and Barcelona have had a rocky relationship as of late, and Messi is the driving force, so if he isn't ready to go, Barca isn't ready to go. Last year in the UCL, Barca had a complete meltdown against Liverpool going up 3-0 in the first leg and blowing it only to lose 4-0 in the second leg. If the team can come together and a unit and embrace the mental side of the game, with their immense talent, they can win the UCL this year. We will have to watch their body language and attitudes early in their 2nd leg against Napoli.
Now, here is our favorite bet, not just because they have +1500, but because we really think they are a solid squad. Our analysis and model has them as having one of the better defensive/keeper units in the UCL. Their biggest issue is goal scoring, however if they can rely on keeping games close and striking late, or striking early and then locking things down; we love their chances. Also, they are already through to the quarter-finals against Atletico Madrid. RB Leipizg manhandled Tottenham, winning 4-0 between the 2 legs of their matchup and have not let up more than 2 goals in their last 17 matches going back to February 2020. In those 17 games, they let up 0 goals in 8 of them and 4 of them were Champions League matches. We love this team's grit and willingness to play for each other and that's what you need in the UCL to win as an underdog.
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