Bet 1 - Risking 2.27 units on Newcastle United at Manchester City total goals scored under 3.5 at -114 odds
The boys at Phull Plate hit on their first English Premier League bet this year, so we decided to really push our model and place three more bets today (July 8th, 2020). It would seem Vegas has Manchester City winning this game 3-0 and our model has the score at 2-1, so either way this bodes well for our bet. Manchester City's offense has been crushing it as of late so rattling off 2 to 3 goals shouldn't be an issue for this squad. On the flip side of things, Newcastle has come out of COVID with a new look, going undefeated in their first 4 matches (2 draws and 2 wins). We see a tremendous opportunity for this game to balance out and be very tightly played as these squads are the two hottest team in the league. This is mainly model driven but we feel very confident in the 2-1 score.
Bet 2 - Risking 1.14 units on Newcastle United team total goals over 0.5 goals at +140 odds
Now, to piggyback off the first bet, we combined it with putting money on Newcastle United to score over 0.5 goals. We are extremely high on this bet for 3 main reasons.
Our model spit out a 2-1 score in favor of Manchester City, but that still puts Newcastle United at 1 goal, which wins our bet.
Newcastle United is on fire. They have 10 goals in their last 4 Premier League matches and to amass the 10 goals before that took 14 matches.
Newcastle is on an unbeaten streak only eclipsed by their opponent in this matchup and we have noticed something shaky going on with that Man. City defense.
Both squads are going to be ready to keep their streaks alive and since they are both playing so well, we can easily see a 1-1 or 2-1 game. We think each coach will have the teams playing tight and harping on fundamentals.
Risking 1 unit on Wolves vs Sheffield United to end in a tie at +210 odds
That there is a bet ladies and gentlemen! That's the kind of bet you tell your bookie grandpa about and he goes "hell yea, that'll put hair on your chest". We absolutely love tie bets in the NHL, so we decided to try and apply that success to the Premier League. Tie bets always have such favorable odds, so you don't even need to win more than you lose to make a ton of money. So, for this matchup our model was heavy on the tie and we loved seeing that, so we did a little bit of research. Since coming back from COVID, in 4 games, Sheffield has 5 goals scored and Wolves has 4 (about a goal a game for each). However, both defenses have been playing solid, Wolves have 3 shutouts in their last 4 games and Sheffield has only allowed 1 goal in each of the last two games. Consequently, with each squad not racking up the goals, yet playing stellar defense; we could honestly see this game being 0-0 or 1-1 and our model agrees.
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