Game 1 - Tottenham Hotspur vs AFC Bournemouth
Bet 1 - Risking 2.53 units on Total goals over 2.5 (-127)
Bet 2 - Parlay - Risking 0.65 units on total goals over 2.5 & Tottenham to win (+155)
Our model has Tottenham winning this game 2-1, which lines up perfectly with our bets and the outcome that Vegas sees as most likely. Tottenham is desperate for this win to stay competitive in qualifying for Champions League next year. However, AFC Bournemouth is also in the race to keep themselves from getting relegated, which is why we anticipate such a tight game. However, the scoring chances should present themselves as both teams go for the much needed win, which is why we took the over. Also, based on injuries and trending play, we did not see the benefit in betting Tottenham to win at -136 odds. They are far from a lock to win this, but with the plus odds from the parlay and our high confidence in 3 goals being scored, we felt bet 2 was well worth the risk. Mind you, if you notice, we only risked 0.65 units on the parlay. These bets are incredibly difficult to hit, but when you do, the payoff is incredible. It is wise to not go overboard when betting parlays, because your bankroll can hit 0 fast, but little amounts here and there on parlays you feel strongly about is well within a reasonable betting strategy.
Game 2 - Everton vs Southampton
Bet 1 - Risking 1.5 units on total goals under 2.5 (-115)
Bet 2 - Risking 1.0 unit on Southampton to win (+255)
Everton is just riddled with injuries and we think Southampton will take advantage of their depleted roster. The match should be very tight and we honestly will not be surprised if we see a 1-1 tie, but that leaves the door open for a sneaky Southampton win at huge plus odds. We just saw a locked in 0-0 tie the other day go to a 1-0 win in stoppage time, it happens. Per ESPN, this is what Everton's coach had to say about their opponent today, "Southampton are really well-organised and play with a lot of intensity," he said. "They defend really well, really high with a lot of pressure." Southampton is coming off some big wins since the restart of play, like the one against Man City. However, if Everton wants to keep their Europa hopes alive they need wins. Both sides are coming to play, all the more reason to predict such a tight game, where whoever scores the second goal first will probably win the game.
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