NFL 2020-2021 Week 1 Sides Bets

•Risking 5 Units on Las Vegas Raiders -1 at -105 odds

                RIP the Blackhole! Hopefully, the Las Vegas stadium can find something similar to that hilariously scary Raiders fan section from Oakland. Also, RIP Cam Newton’s tenure in Carolina, we hope he finds a new home where he can once again excel as an NFL QB. The 2020-2021 NFL season seems to be a tale of new beginnings for these two squads; however, they are headed in different directions. We have the Raiders winning this game by 3.5 points; this is not a statement of pure faith in the Raiders. We believe the Panthers are not going to be racking up many wins this upcoming year and here is a quick view of why:

  1. Ron Rivera swap for Matt Rule. Ron Rivera has been a part of many big times games for multiple teams. He knows how to create a winning atmosphere and a track record that commands respect. Matt Rule may have a long and fruitful NFL career but his success will not start this season. He is inheriting a 5-11 squad that ranked 31st in scoring offense and 31st in points against. Have fun turning that around.

  2. Cam Newton was swapped for Teddy Bridgewater. We really like Bridgewater and you must love his resilience and ability to battle back from injury. However, this is his first year with the Panthers and his first year back at starting QB in quite some time. We have a strong feeling that he and Matt Rule will have to suffer through some growing pains.

  3. Luke Kuechly retirement. ‘Nuff said, good luck replacing that stud.

It is important to note Vegas was offering -113 odds on the money line, but we thought that was asking for just a little too much juice to take the money line according to our model. So, we opted for the generous -105 odds on the -1 line instead, this gives us slightly better expected value on the bet. Gruden, please don’t f*!k this up.

•Risking 3 Units on Dallas Cowboys Money Line at -148 odds. 

                Alright, we are getting tired of relying on the Cowboys to make us money, but ALL HAIL THE MODEL. We have the Cowboys winning this game by 2.5 points and we are not giving the Rams any points for home field advantage and it looks like Vegas copied our decision because we know wass up. The Rams stink, Goff’s arm would be better suited as a pool noddle for my 2-year-old nephew. Their wide receivers are absolute studs, but they are basically glorified sprinters when paired up with their franchise QB. As for their running backs, good luck, it is somewhat of a toss-up at this point. Their defense still looks solid with the star talent they retained, but Dallas’s offense last year showed they were very capable of putting up yardage against anyone and Dak will be coming out ready to play and show he is worth top tier money. I mean, we have the Cowboys winning over 9.5 games this season and it all starts here. These two squads have a 18-17 record when playing each other in favor of Dallas and we all know the rules are win by two. We think the Cowboys have a sizable advantage on 3rd downs and the advantage at quarterback as well.  We could of took the -2.5 line on the Cowboys at -110 odds that Vegas is offering but we thought that there was much more value on the Money Line at -148 odds.  Our model calculated that the odds should have been several points more to take the Cowboys on the Money Line in this game, so we took the Money Line which is offering a better positive expected value on this bet.


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