NHL 2019-2020 Stanley Cup Winner Prop Bets

All three bets below had the same similarities in terms of deciding metrics that led us to bet on them.  We have found a strong correlation between certain goaltending statistics during the regular season and past Stanley Cup winning teams. Which makes sense as goaltending is of the most important positions in hockey when it comes to a 7-game series. Other custom weighted important team statistics included scoring percentage, shot differential, PIM/G differential, power play %, and penalty kill %.  However, we had to balance our metrics with the odds each team were assigned. For instance, a team may have had very favorable metrics, but their odds were not worth the risk when the two were compared. Therefore, when we discovered an edge, we took the top 3 and bet them.  This doesn’t mean that we think the other teams don’t stand a chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but it does mean that we thought for the amount of money we had to risk was not worth the potential reward. Finally, we decided to bet on the Boston Bruins, Vegas Golden Knights, and the Carolina Hurricanes. It made significantly more sense to risk money on these 3 teams at the chance of winning the profits the odds were providing.


•                Risking 1 Unit at +650 odds on Boston Bruins to win the Stanley Cup


The Bruins are a machine and of the 3 teams tied for the best odds to win the Stanley Cup, they had to be our best bet for many reasons. Here goes the magnificent list:

  1. They have THE best goalie duo in the league in Tuukka Rask (.919 SV% and 2.39 GAA) and Jaroslav Halak (.919 SV% and 2.39 GAA).

  2. Their core guys have done before, back in 2010-2011; Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara and Tuukka Rask took home their first cup and they all went to another one just last year.

  3. They finished this short season with the most wins and points in the entire league.

  4. They are 7th in goals for and 1st in goals against as a team, giving them a +53 goal differential.

  5. They are 2nd in the league for power play percentage, only trailing the Edmonton Oilers who have the league’s top 2 scorers on their powerplay unit.

  6. They are 3rd in the league for penalty kill percentage.

  7. They are also top 10 in faceoff percentage and shots against per game

The Boston Bruins were the most efficient team this year, they dominated mostly all of the important categories, which is why we believe in them so much.


•               Risking 1 Unit at +800 odds on Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup


For new and young fans of the NHL, the Vegas Knights are doing a great job to create a new generation of fandom for hockey and their team. They made the Stanley Cup Finals in their very first season as a franchise, that is incredible when you think about current finals appearance droughts by some teams. For example, the Toronto Maple Leafs have not sniffed Stanley Cup Finals ice in 52 seasons and the Islanders are sitting at 35 seasons. Side note: a Canadian team has not won the Cup since 1993, ya know, just saying. We have Canadian members in our ownership, so our stateside owners felt that was an important stat. Anyway, we found some interesting stats that the Golden Knights exceled at this year.

  1. They ranked 1st in shots per game.

  2. They ranked 9th in wins.

  3. They ranked 9th in goals for.

  4. They ranked 9th in power play percentage.

  5. Marc-Andre Fleury ranked 2nd in shutouts

Vegas has a strong goaltending duo in Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner that could help carry them deep into the playoffs. They are also a big strong team that should fare well in the, usually, incredibly physical Western Conference playoff rounds. Lastly, their production has come as a team, with their top player recording 66 points and their 8th ranked player recording 31 points in 59 games. Therefore, if someone goes cold, the rest of the squad should be able to carry the load. In the end, the Vegas Golden Knights are our mid-tier bet based on the balance of metrics and odds.

  • Risking 1 Unit at +4000 odds on Carolina Hurricanes to win the Stanley Cup

Here we go, the show-boaters, the longshots; you either love’em or hate’em for their crazy celebrations. We are big fans of this squad and we have chosen them as our sleeper pick. They finished 11th in the league for team wins and points while landing the 8th best power play percentage and 4th in penalty kill percentage. A few other surprising stats includes:

  1. 3rd in shots per game

  2. 2nd in shots against per game

  3. Mrazek and Reimer combined for 6 shutouts and they both had over.900 save percentages.

  4. They finished 6th in goal differential at +29

We honestly believe their total wins and league points do not do their actual stats any justice. They are poised to make a deep run if Mrazek and Reimer can keep their wits about that. Like the Golden Knights, the Hurricanes have widespread production, where the top guy has 66 points and their 12th ranked guy has 20 points. They have an excellent mix of young and old and brought solid talent like Trocheck to put them over the top. DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS TEAM.



Dislcaimer


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