Premier League - 4 Games, 7 Bets - 7/16/2020 - Our Model has a Mind of its Own

Game 1: Leicester City vs Sheffield

  • Bet 1: 2.82% wager on Leicester City -0.25 on the Asian Line @ -141 odds (if they lose we lose the entire bet, a tie loses half the bet, and a win wins the entire bet)

  • Bet 2: 2.00% wager on Leicester City team total over 1.5 goals @ +120 odds

  • Bet 3: 1.18% wager on both teams to score @ -109 odds

This is a greasy game and we love it; this should be a battle and we are predicting a 2-1 Leicester City win. It is important to note, when Leicester has won this season, which is 17 times, they have scored 2 or more goals in all of those games. Therefore, if you are heavy on the Leicester win, like we are, you might as well bet their team total goals over 1.5, especially getting plus odds. We recognize Sheffield is no joke and they have some impressive wins this year and as of late, so we love their chances of getting at least 1 in this game; hence, our bet on both squads to score. Both teams still have something to play for, as Sheffield wants to break into the top 5 and Leicester City is on shaky grounds in their top 5 spot. However, historically, Leicester City has had Sheffield's number, especially recently, and we do not expect that to change today.

Game 2: Southampton vs Brighton

  • Bet 1: 2.0% wager under 2.5 total goals for the match @ -129 odds

  • Bet 2: 1.75% wager for Southampton to win, tie no bet @ -175 odds

What a game we have here; Brighton comes in this one as the powerhouse, just kidding, we meant the house with no power. Seriously, Brighton cannot score, we think everyone takes reps as the tendy and no one is allowed to shoot under the coach's watch. Consequently, we love the under in total goals in this match-up. We can very well see a 0-0, 1-0, or 1-1 game. Southampton should be able to sneak one in on these guys and, in all honesty, Brighton may be able to do the same. However, we are heavy on the 1-0 win by Southampton.

Game 3: Man United vs Crystal Palace

  • Bet 1: 2.78% wager on total goals for the match over 2.5 @ -139 odds

This game is all about Man United, they NEED this win. They are barely in the top 5 and at risk for falling out by the end of the season. In their next three games Crystal Palace is their easiest game by far, so they need this cupcake before they faceoff against West Ham and Leicester City. The problem is, Crystal Palace beat them 2-1 the last time they played one another, say what!? We think this game should flip that score to 2-1 in favor of Man United. Crystal Palace plays these guys hard, but Man United is desperate and should win with 2 or 3 goals. Therefore, we stayed away from everything except total match goals to go over since these teams tend not to shut each other out.

Game 4: Everton vs Aston Villa

  • Bet 1: 0.5% wager on the match to end in a tie @ +250 odds

The tie bet in this game was a result of 3 things.

  1. Both teams suck and the match should be even.

  2. Our model spit out a perfect 1.5 goals to 1.5 goals for the final score.

  3. We are getting plus odds, thus the small percentage we laid down.

Not much to explain here. We bet on the pure value and model generated numbers.

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