Game 1: Everton vs Sheffield
Bet 1: 0.5% wager on the game ending in a tie @ +230 odds
Bet 2: 1.04% wager on the prop bet for both teams to score - YES @ -104 odds
All of today's games offer us 0 excitement potential in actual gameplay. Where's Man City, Man U, the Tottenham Harry Kanes, Chelsea, etc. The bets will help keep us locked in, but damn that's a weak schedule.
Our model has this game being very tight, hence the tie bet. It also put a strong emphasis on both teams to score, so we are predicting a 1-1 game, if not, a 2-2 game. These two teams do not really have a strong history to go off of in the last 10 years, only playing each other twice. In those 2 games, each team won one game by 2 goals. We do not see that type of high-powered offense coming into the match on either side. In the standings, they are only separated by 4 spots with Everton being the under-dog, but still very capable of keeping this one close.
Game 2: Crystal Palace vs Wolves
Bet 1: 1.0% wager on Crystal Palace +1 on the Asian Line @ +102 odds
Bet 2: 2.0% wager on Crystal Palace team total goals over 0.5 @ +106 odds
Bet 3: 0.76% wager on the prop bet of Raul Jimenez to score - NO @ -155 odds
Bet 4: 0.5% wager on the prop bet of Jordan Ayew to score - YES @ +440 odds
Wolves are definitely the better team in this matchup, but we received tremendous value from the betting markets on Crystal Palace when the numbers were compared to our model. Crystal Place has a history of playing them very well, they have a good goalie, and are sitting in a good spot to play spoiler for the Wolves as they continue to look for these last two wins on their schedule. These teams have played against each other quite a bit in the last 10 years and the matches are rarely blowouts. Crystal Palace has actually taken it to the Wolves in the last 6 games going 4-1-1 against them. Therefore, us getting plus odds on them to win and score a goal seemed like a no-brainer. Also, this can be seen as somewhat of a letdown game since the Wolves matchup against Chelsea in their final match. That will be a battle for the Wolves, but give them a final chance to prove they can beat top quality talent. It is also interesting to note that Crystal Palace has exactly 1694 wins and 1694 losses in their club history. So, with two games remaining in their schedule can they get above .500?
Game 3: Newcastle vs Brighton
Bet 1: 1.0% wager on Newcastle +0.5 on the Asian Line @ +100 odds
Bet 2: 2.0% wager on game total goals under 2.5 on the Asian Line @ -122 odds
This game is awful. We have the 13th ranked Newcastle vs the 16th ranked Brighton. We originally were not even going to put the game in our model, but here we are. Newcastle is supposed to be the better team and we were surprised to find out we could get plus money on Newcastle even getting half a goal from Vegas. We had to jump all over that bet. As for the under 2.5 goal total wager, the last 5 games these two teams have played ended either 0-0, 1-1, or 1-0, which leans to a tight matchup. The wrong team is the favorite and they have been bet too high.
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