Premier League - 7/21/20 - Top Talent vs Bottom Dogs

Game 1: Manchester City at Watford

  • Bet 1: 1.52 % wager on game total goals under 3.5 @ -152 odds

  • Bet 2: 1.13 % wager on Manchester City -1.5 on the Asian line @ -113 odds

  • Bet 3: 0.75 % wager on Gabriel Jesus to Score - No @ -159 odds

  • Bet 4: 0.50 % wager on Troy Deeney to Score - Yes @ +250 odds

Man City came out and made Watford look like a practice squad last time these guys met up, routing them 8-0. "Well guys, why did you pick the under then?" Good question. That was one of the worst, if not, the worst loss in Watford history. We believe that they will not let that happen again, but we won't be completely caught off-guard if it does. We clearly think Man City is winning by 2 no matter the final score, hence taking them -1.5 goals. However, Watford should be focused on defense first in this game, because even if they do not win, they do not want to lose 8-0 again. Also, odds on the under 3.5 are at -152 for a reason and we thought it should have been higher, so we liked the value and the message coming from the betting markets. Lastly, Man City just came off a rough loss in the FA Cup, which could be a side-effect of not being interested, but either why, they will be looking to get back in the win column.

Game 2: Arsenal at Aston Villa

  • Bet 1: 2.00 % wager on game total goals over 2.5 @ -148 odds

  • Bet 2: 1.75 % wager on Arsenal to win, tie no bet line @ -175 odds

Arsenal is coming off huge wins, one against Liverpool and one against Man City in the FA Cup. Aston Villa has not done well against top competition lately, but in their last two games they tied Everton and shutout C.P. for a win. We still think Arsenal comes out and trashes A.V. 3-0 or 3-1. However, there is a slight risk of a let down game, since Arsenal may be concentrating on the FA Cup at this point. However, with our analysis and model statistics, we conclude Arsenal will take care of business in this match up and utilize their strong counter-attack offense to capitalize when Aston Villa exposes itself to take chances. Oh, and Aston Villa WILL take chances, no doubt. They are battling to stay above the relegation line, which could go either way in motivation. Arsenal should be poised to put the hammer down and try to relegate A.V., while A.V. should play like hungry dogs. In the end, the betting markets offered no value on taking any angles on Aston Villa, which really pushed us in the direction of Arsenal. This should be a fun one if A.V. has some fight left.

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