Game 1: West Ham vs Manchester United
Bet 1: 1.3% wager on West Ham +1.5 goals on the Asian line @ +115 odds
We were originally skeptical about betting this game, but when we ran our model and compared our numbers to the betting market, we received absolutely insane value on West Ham. Vegas has Man United to win, tie no bet at -2000 odds, we had them somewhere in the -200 area. Even if our model is off by -500, that is still -700 compared to -2000! The way this game is set up has equally compared to 6 other matches we have bet so far in Premier League. In those matches if we were getting +1.5 goals on the underdog we would have went 5-1, if we took the underdog straight up, we would have went 4-2. West Ham plays top competition tough and in the last 4 matches they are 2-1-1 against Man United. West Ham is very capable beating their opponent outright, however they were still getting plus odds while receiving a +1.5 goals to start the match. This bet compared to the other bet possibilities in the game really stood out to us.
Game 2: Liverpool vs Chelsea
Bet 1: 2.0% wager on Liverpool straight up to win in full time @ +102 odds
Bet 2: 0.5% wager for Mohamed Salah to score - YES @ +123 odds
Bet 3: 0.5% wager for Sadio Mane to score - YES @ +165 odds
So, you're telling us that Vegas is going to give us plus odds to take Liverpool straight up to win excluding the tie. The best team in the league who is coming off a loss and almost never concedes back to back losses, combined with playing a very hot and cold Chelsea team; yea, we will take that bet 10 out of 10 times. A Chelsea team who is coming off a huge FA Cup win, which gave them a trip to its final; perhaps their heads might be thinking ahead of Liverpool? Historically, these two teams play each other very very tight with 7 ties in the last 15 games. However, Liverpool has been quiet since the return of play and we imagine they will be coming out here to dominate with their top guys likely to play the entire match. We thought so strongly about Liverpool putting up, at the very least, a goal or two that we put a tiny amount on Salah and Mane to score. If Liverpool gets 2 goals, at least one of those guys' names will be on the scoresheet and hitting 1 of 2 of these props equals net profit. This should be a fun battle to watch.
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