Premier League & FA Cup Bets - 7/18/2020

Game 1: Norwich City vs Burnley (Premier League)

  • Bet 1: 1.0% wager on Norwich to win, tie no bet @ +145 odds

We absolutely HATE this bet, do not bet it, we beg you. Norwich City is battling with the Detroit Red Wings for worst sports team in the world. Norwich City is 0-8 in their last 8 games and have combined for 1 goal scored and 17 goals scored against in those games. We know what you are thinking "Well, jackasses, why are you betting this then?". We checked out the line compared to our model's projected line and it is all sorts of out of sync. When we looked, Burnley was at -175 odds to win, tie no bet; therefore, they had a ton of value on them. However, the last 3 times our model projected a similar line and the betting markets had skewed that line in a very specific way, the underdog has won outright. The most notable game was when Bournemouth played Leicester City and Bournemouth demolished them 4-1. Leicester City actually had VALUE on their odds to win, so we hit it hard and got completely duped. So, we would kick ourselves if we did not put a tiny bet on the underdog here to test if our model's trends in this specific situation will continue.

Also, this is Norwich's last Premier League level 1 home match, they are guaranteed relegation. So, we are predicting that they get up and get ready for a W this game. They have 5 wins on the season, 4 of them are at home and of those 4 home wins, 2 of them are against top 5 teams, 1 being Leicester City. Therefore, Norwich can create quality wins at home.

FRAUD ALERT: We would like to issue a fraud alert of Leicester City. Compared to the rest of the league they do not have a lot of losses. Nonetheless, they have lost to Norwich City and Bournemouth, two of the most garbage teams in the league. Do not trust Leicester City, we won't say they play in fixed games, but they play in fixed games.

Game 2: Arsenal vs Manchester City (FA Cup)

  • Bet 1: 1.07% wager on Arsenal +1.5 goals on the Asian Line @ -107 odds

These FA Cup battles are going to be fun games to watch today. Historically, Man City has completely owned Arsenal in these matchups, like embarrassingly owned them. However, FA Cup blowouts are very rare and Arsenal has arguably the better tendy. Our model has an elite team ranking vs an above average team ranking in a very tight match-up, which is not what the betting markets are indicating. Consequently, we absolutely jumped over the borderline plus odds we were receiving to risk money on Arsenal GETTING 1.5 goals in an FA Cup match.

Game 3: Manchester United vs Chelsea (FA Cup)

  • Bet 1: 2.14% wager on total goals in the match over 2.5 @ -107 odds

  • Bet 2: 1.37% wager on Manchester United to win, tie no bet @ -137 odds

Once again, we have two stud squads battling it out in the FA Cup, we do not expect a blowout. Chelsea, as of late, has been playing un-Chelsea-ish, which gave us the extra confidence to back up our model's prediction of a 2-1 Man United win. That 2-1 outcome would then hit the over 2.5 goals and we loved the -107 odds we were getting from Vegas, so we felt the need to take that wager. In their 3 previous matchups, it has hit the over twice and Manchester United has won all 3 games; that trend helped us feel a bit more comfortable taking our specific bets.

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