Game 1: Watford vs Arsenal 11am EST
Bet 1: 3.33% wager on game total goals over 2.5 @ -159 odds
Bet 2: 0.33% wager on parlay Arsenal to win in full time & over 2.5 game total goals @ +165 odds
Arsenal should be able to come out here and crush Watford in their last Premier League game of the season. We just hope they are not overlooking Watford to prepare for the FA Cup final. Arsenal is coming off a very bad loss to Aston Villa, so we would think they are showing up to get back on track and finish strong. Watford has had two crushing defeats in a row, giving up 3 goals to West Ham and then 4 goals to Man City. We expect Watford is going to come out and play loose, have fun, and try to put some goals in the net. If Arsenal takes this game seriously, that should be able to help them silence Watford. We took the over because, for whatever reason, Watford tends to score on Arsenal, the last game they played it was a 2-2 draw. Therefore we are hoping to see a 3-1 Arsenal win and that is what our model was backing up.
Game 2: Aston Villa vs West Ham 11am EST
Bet 1: 2.0% wager on game total goals over 2.5 @ -148 odds
Bet 2: 1.0% wager on West Ham to win, tie no bet @ +123
Yo!!! Our boys from West Ham, yea they are garbage, but they have Antonio; the guy is a stud. It seems like West Ham knows when Phull Plate puts bets on them because they just go out there and perform (knock on wood). We probably just jinxed that, but oh well, Antonio doesn't believe in that kind of stuff, he only believes in running up the scoreboard, so we have faith. West Ham is also safe from relegation, but you know who is not? Aston Villa. They will be out there trying to secure a spot for next season because if they lose and Watford wins, they are in trouble. We expect West Ham to come out here and put the hammer down to try and spoil Aston Villa's hopes of securing their spot. Fun fact, West Ham is undefeated in their last 4 home games against A.V. and have not even let up a goal in those games. We expect more of a battle from Aston Villa, making this game a 2-1 win for West Ham.
Game 3: Wolves vs Chelsea 11am EST
Bet 1: 2.18% wager on game total goals under 2.5 @ -109
We find this to be a very interesting matchup. The Wolves are very strong sitting in 6th place and Chelsea has been shaky a lot of the season. Like Arsenal, we could see them looking ahead to the FA Cup final and not put their best effort in this game. Both squads play tight and the goalkeepers are solid. In the last 4 times these two teams have met, the under has hit twice and the over 2.5 has been hit twice (with one match being 5-2). Generally speaking, these teams play each other tight and Chelsea has a strong habit of shutting out the Wolves; doing so 5 times in the last decade. We should be able to tell Chelsea's mindset early in the game to see if they showed up to win and put goals up or if they are in a holding pattern.
Game 4: Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace 11am EST
Bet 1: 1.09% wager on Crystal Palace +1 on the Asian Line @ -109 odds
Bet 2: 0.5% wager on Crystal Palace to win in full time @ +550 odds
It is really hard to bet against the Tottenham Harry Kanes (that is Phull Plate's official name for them now). They have been on a roll as of late winning 3 straight matches against Arsenal, Newcastle, and Leicester City. In the last 11 matches these two teams have played against one another, Tottenham has won 9 of them and the only 2 matches C.P. won were two FA Cup games. Therefore, Tottenham is 9-0 in their last 9 Premier League games against Crystal Palace. In those 9 Tottenham wins, they have 15 goals scored and only 1 goal against. Let's read a little deeper, that means in 8 of those 9 Tottenham wins, C.P. was shutout and 6 of those shutouts were 1-0. Yes, Tottenham is on an incredible run against C.P., but all things must come to and end. We are betting on that end arriving today because of the incredible value we are getting from the betting markets. Also, a handful of 1-0 games means Crystal Palace can play Tottenham very tight and if they can hold true to that, perhaps they can flip the script into a 1-0 win.
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