Premier League - The Frenzy Continues - 7/15/2020 - 3 Matches, 6 Bets

Game 1: Wolves vs Burnley at 1:00pm

  • Bet 1: 1.15% wager on total goals over 2.0 on the Asian Line @ -115 odds

  • Bet 2: 1.65% wager on Wolves -0.25 on the Asian Line @ -165 odds (tie we lose half bet, a win by 1 or more wins full bet, a loss loses our full bet.)

Fans may be riding high on Burnley after a 1-1 draw with Liverpool. However, we love the Wolves and the way they play, we are taking them on a 2-1 win in this game. The Wolves have a ton to play for at the moment and that mentality has been seen in their last handful of matches. The last time these two squads met up it was a 1-1 draw and it very well could happen again. We just think the Wolves have been trending up at a maintainable pace without the peaks and valleys of teams like Burnley. We will take the value on the more consistent squad.


Game 2: Bournemouth vs Manchester City at 1:00pm

  • Bet 1: 1.24% wager on Manchester City -2.25 on the Asian Line @ -124 odds (Man City win by 2 loses half our bet, a win by 3 or more wins our full bet, tie or loss is a full bet loss)

  • Bet 2: 2.28% wager on total goals over 3.75 on the Asian Line @ -114 odds (3 total goals or less we lose full bet, 4 total goals wins half bet, and 5 or more total goals we win our full bet)

When our model projects anywhere near a total goals in a match of 3, the games have generally seem 4 or even 5 goals. We love the chances of Manchester City blowing out Bournemouth 5-rip or along those lines. Conversely, we have noticed these lower level teams playing the top 5 very strong lately, but we think it is about time for a bottom-feeder to get stomped. We absolutely love the value we are getting on the Asian Line for Manchester City, we honestly thought they would be way bigger favorites. Our guess is that people are riding high on this rubbish (it is the ENGLISH Premier League) squad because they absolutely took it to Leicester the other day. However, that was totally fueled by a PK followed by a red card. Bournemouth will not just fall back to Earth, the foot of Manchester City will stomp them back to Earth. Alright, that was a little intense, especially since we took a beating the last time we doubted Bournemouth.


Game 3: Tottenham vs Newcastle United at 1:00pm

  • Bet 1: 2.30% wager on total goals over 2.5 on the Asian Line @ -115 odds

  • Bet 2: 1.25% wager on Tottenham to win @ -125 odds

Last and definitely least, Tottenham. Vegas was just giving up money to let us take Tottenham, so we had to do it for value's sake. Nonetheless, you cannot count Newcastle out of this match. Tottenham this season is like the King's son who was destined for the throne and never quite amounted to anything really. Or like when your favorite team trades for a hall of fame veteran, but he clearly went to Tampa Bay to retire (no, not talking about Brady, at least I hope not). You get the jist, anyway, we never feel super strong on taking the Hotspur, but they should handle Newcastle just fine. What Newcastle does have going for them is a couple things. 1. They are undefeated in their last 6 home matches. 2. Their last 4 games against Tot have been 1 goal games, therefore they usually keep themselves in range to steal a match. Let's just say we don't have the strongest convictions about this match, but our model put the bet over the top for us.


Dislcaimer

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