3.0% wager on DEN Nuggets +8.5 @ -110 odds
We have this game a little closer with LAC being a favorite by 3.5 points on neutral court based on our new power ratings. They split the regular season matches 2-2, so they play each other tough.
We needed to dig deeper given how many points the Clippers are laying. We discovered that when the Nuggets have lost this year, they have lost by more than 8 points 53% of the time. However, when you consider their record as a whole, losing by more than 8 points has only occurred 20% of the time this season (this means counting wins as well since winning will also cover the spread for an underdog).
For the Clippers when they win games they have won by more than 8 points 66% of the time. However, you must also consider their losses since that would result in a loss for the favorite, when you do that the clippers have only covered this number 45% of the time this season. The odds on the spread are only -110, which implies a 52.5% chance of winning since that's how many games you would have to win in order to breakeven at that price. Based on the analysis above, DEN Nuggets at +8.5 seems like a really good number and a steal of a price, so we bet it and we bet it heavy; even though we think the Clippers are technically the better team.
2.0% wager on NY Islanders Moneyline @ -124 odds
NY Islanders are the best team in the East, they wrap this series up. Both losses they have in this series came in overtime. To make matters worse, the Flyers might be missing Coots. The Islanders win this game more times than they don't, but anything can happen.
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