Week 7 NFL - Let's Dial the Spread

  1. 2.0% wager on DET +2.5 @ -110

  2. 2.0% wager on BUF -13.5 @ -110

  3. 2.0% wager on GB -3.5 @ -110

  4. 2.0% wager on NE -1.5 @ -110

  5. 2.0% wager on KC -9.5 @ -110

  6. 2.0% wager on TB -4.0 @ -110

  7. 2.0% wager on LAC -7.5 @ -110


Weekly Three Play Parlay:


GB -3.5 @ -110

+

NE -1.5 @ -110

+

LAC -7.5 @ -110


Wager: 2.0%

Odds: +597


For the last few weeks we have taken a side on the spread for every single NFL game. Now that we have some data and can extract some trends, we have decided to try and hone in on our top plays this week. By doing that, we have come up with 7 spread bets mainly based on our power rankings (which can be found on the front page of the sports betting section of our site). Basically, we took our top 10 power ranked teams and if they were playing another team outside the top 10 we bet the game. Then, we looked at our bottom 10 power ranked teams and if they were playing someone above the bottom 10, we bet the other side on the spread. We went back through all the games we did not take and we absolutely love how things turned out, hopefully the games play put as they should, at least in majority.


The one game we want to focus on is the Packers vs Texans game. Rodgers and the boys took a shellacking last week against Brady and it was ugly. Now, they have a matchup with a capable, but underperforming Texans squad. GB are only favorites by 3.5 points and we expect them to house Houston with a huge comeback game. Our power rankings have Green Bay in the top 10 and the Texans not even close. That brings us to our parlay. Every week we will be selecting a 3 game parlay from the games we bet individually on the spread that week. These games will use analysis, models, fundamentals, and a committee based process. Overwhelming, the Green Bay game was a unanimous choice and the New England leg of the parlay was a close second. The third and final leg of the parlay came down to putting our money on Tampa Bay or LAC and we opted for LAC. This had nothing to do with the Buccs or us underrating them, since we do have them as number 1 in our power rankings. However, it has more to do with the Chargers defense and hot rookie QB going up against the folding and atrocious Jacksonville Jaguars. We believe the Chargers defense has a VERY solid chance of holding that team under 20 points, or even 10points. That right there is enough to push us in the direction of LAC to win us our third leg of the parlay.


Enjoy the action and we will update you on how our process worked next week!


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